How much risk is worth it?
Measure return and risk from history and from scenarios, see how an investor's risk aversion scores them, then mix a risky asset with a safe one and find the best split on the capital allocation line.
Riskier assets grew more, and swung more
Riskier assets grew more, and swung more
| Average year | SD | Worst year | $1 grew to | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small stocks | 14.9% | 29.2% | −42.3% | $64.57 |
| Large stocks | 8.7% | 16.6% | −26.2% | $17.30 |
| Government bonds | 6.0% | 6.8% | −8.2% | $9.32 |
| T-bills | 3.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | $4.14 |
Six months of two stocks: risk, Sharpe ratios and which one to hold
- Find each stock's average monthly return.
- Find each stock's deviations from its average, its variance and its standard deviation (divide by n).
- What would Excel's STDEV.S give for FVF?
- Which stock is riskier?
- Find each stock's Sharpe ratio.
- Leila will hold only one of the two stocks, mixed with T-bills, and she may borrow at the T-bill rate. Which stock should she pick, and what monthly expected return could it give her at the riskier stock's level of risk?
| HLT | FVF | |
|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 6% | 2.20% |
| Month 2 | −4.50% | 0.40% |
| Month 3 | 9% | 3% |
| Month 4 | 1.50% | 1.10% |
| Month 5 | −3% | −0.50% |
| Month 6 | 6.60% | 2.80% |
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