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Same factor risks, same expected return?

Separate factor surprises from risk premiums, copy a fund’s exposures and see how arbitrage closes a return gap. Solve has 10 questions with worked answers.

Factor surprises · Step 1 of 12

A factor surprise measures what forecasts missed

01234growth (%)ExpectedActualSurprise
E[R]: expected return; R: realised returnBeta: exposure to a factor surpriseRisk-free rate: annual T-bill return
Quillmere Fund is a fictional portfolio exposed to a growth factor. Its surprise F is actual growth minus the growth investors expected. A surprise can be positive, negative or zero; across forecasts its mean is zero.
Try it: Set actual growth equal to expected growth, then move it either way.
Expected growth over the year3%
Actual growth over the year4%
Expected growth
3%
Actual growth
4%
Surprise
1.00%
F = actual growth − expected growth.
F = (0.0400 − 0.0300) = 1.00%.
Growth exceeded the forecast. The actual level and the surprise are different inputs.
Check yourself
Growth was expected to be 2% over the year and is actually 1%. What is the factor surprise?

Exam coming up and the arbitrage table never seems to add up?

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